2nd Round Digest
After a whirlwind of a first round, we're left with 8 teams to duke it out for a spot in the NBA Finals. With the exception of Washington and Miami, every team that advanced faced a legitimate threat. The Heat were able to make quick work of the Bobcats, especially with the ailing Al Jefferson sitting out Game 4. Washington quickly took command of its series with the astonishingly overrated Chicago Bulls (the Bulls have long been the media's darling team, often receiving more praise then they really deserve or is frankly realistic). With that said, let's take a look at the my power rankings heading in to the second round.
#8 Indiana Pacers
The Pacers faced the toughest test of any team in the first round this year. It's ironic because at face value, they actually faced one of the statistically worst playoff teams in the history of the NBA in the Atlanta Hawks. The problem lied in the fact that the Hawks had proven to be a tough matchup for Indiana all season. The other problem was that the Pacers had been on a spiraling collapse, only rivaled by Greg Norman's collapse at the Masters and the 2004 Yankees in the ALCS seeming to lose by the grace of only the baseball gods deciding to finally grant the Red Sox their World Series dream. Like you don't understand, the Pacers were getting worked for almost half of this series. The Hawks big men (the likes of Pero Antic, Mike Scott, and Elton Brand) rendered Roy Hibbert virtually useless. Paul George seemed determined to be find his inner 'Stephon Marbury' at all of the worst times. Lance Stephenson was in full 'I got this' mode which probably cost him $30 million dollars. No longer were Pacer role players performing the way they had all season, hello George Hill, I mean you!
It wasn't just the unexplainable collapse of Indiana either, it was the Hawks rallying behind a 'Pop' disciple with a dream of being the 6th 8-seed to win a first round matchup. The mighty Hawks on paper stood no chance but when Game 1 tipped off, the perfect storm hit. The combination of the Pacers collapse coupled with Jeff Teague turning in to a fringe All-Star, Paul Millsap dominating the paint, and Korver and co. raining threes at a historic rate, the Hawks were able to win all the odd games of the series except the one that truly mattered. The Hawks had the Pacers fighting for their lives the entire series. They went up 1-0 after Game 1, 2-1 after Game 3, and 3-2 after Game 5.
The improbable run of the Atlanta Hawks fell short of a first round upset but the foundation is in place for them to get better. With Teague, Millsap, and Korver returning along with the Al Horford getting healthy the Hawks could easily be a top 4 seed when the playoffs roll around next year. Overall, the Pacers have shown nothing that warrants discussion. The hope is that by finding a way to win the series, against all adversity and with everyone in the media turning on them, that they'll finally be able to rid themselves of the stench they've been dragging on their back for the past three months. But until they play better, they will be the 8th spot in my power rankings. Many believe they will lose unceremoniously to the Wizards, which would make their Game 7 win against Atlanta virtually pointless.
It wasn't just the unexplainable collapse of Indiana either, it was the Hawks rallying behind a 'Pop' disciple with a dream of being the 6th 8-seed to win a first round matchup. The mighty Hawks on paper stood no chance but when Game 1 tipped off, the perfect storm hit. The combination of the Pacers collapse coupled with Jeff Teague turning in to a fringe All-Star, Paul Millsap dominating the paint, and Korver and co. raining threes at a historic rate, the Hawks were able to win all the odd games of the series except the one that truly mattered. The Hawks had the Pacers fighting for their lives the entire series. They went up 1-0 after Game 1, 2-1 after Game 3, and 3-2 after Game 5.
The improbable run of the Atlanta Hawks fell short of a first round upset but the foundation is in place for them to get better. With Teague, Millsap, and Korver returning along with the Al Horford getting healthy the Hawks could easily be a top 4 seed when the playoffs roll around next year. Overall, the Pacers have shown nothing that warrants discussion. The hope is that by finding a way to win the series, against all adversity and with everyone in the media turning on them, that they'll finally be able to rid themselves of the stench they've been dragging on their back for the past three months. But until they play better, they will be the 8th spot in my power rankings. Many believe they will lose unceremoniously to the Wizards, which would make their Game 7 win against Atlanta virtually pointless.
#7 Brooklyn Nets
All hail Paul Pierce! The captain showed up when it truly mattered. The pivotal Game 1 baskets combined with a game saving block in Game 7 sent the Brooklyn Nets to the second round. Here's a cool stat - out of 19 first-year coaches to coach a Game 7 on the road, Jason Kidd is the only one to have won - so can we please allow Kidd to coach and leave him alone now? Deron Williams looked about 60% of the Deron Williams of old, but it might be time to come to the realization that DW is no longer the Utah beast that rivaled only Chris Paul as the best point guard in the NBA. Williams still has the ability to turn it on when needed but not on a nightly basis. It's as if the 'lightbulb' went off in the league's head and they realized how to play him. Am I the only one who thinks that Williams takes way too many three pointers with feet inside the line? No? Okay good. Garnett is done, it's almost sad to watch him out there. Coming in to the series against the Heat, Brooklyn's best case scenario is Garnett averaging 5 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 emotional battle cries that could rally the stagnant Brooklyn fan base a game. If Garnett can give them three games like this against Miami, it's possible they could win 2 games against the Heat.
The Nets winning Game 7 in Toronto is more about the Raptors not being ready to take the next step then anything. The veteran Nets will look to upset the Heat in what can only be considered destiny at this point. All signs point to Miami making quick work of Brooklyn but there are a few unknowns that need to be considered.
The Nets winning Game 7 in Toronto is more about the Raptors not being ready to take the next step then anything. The veteran Nets will look to upset the Heat in what can only be considered destiny at this point. All signs point to Miami making quick work of Brooklyn but there are a few unknowns that need to be considered.
- Which Deron Williams will show up?
If the Nets are going to stand a chance, they're going to need Williams to dominate his matchup with the Heat point guards. Chalmers and Cole are quick but they are small. I wouldn't mind seeing Williams in post up situations much like the way they use Shaun Livingston.
- Can Kidd at least come close to the coaching ability of Spoelstra?
This will be an underrated key. When Miami throws lineup changes at the Nets, it will be important for Kidd to be able to react. He can't just force the issue and hope the veteran players will work their way out of it. Especially if guys like Marcus Thornton, Andray Blatche, and Alan Anderson are forced to play big roles. His timeout strategy will be important as well to help stymie the inevitable Heat runs they always go on each game.
- Will Pierce and Garnett be "Heat killers" again?
#6 Oklahoma Thunder
The Thunder had the worst luck of any team in the first round because they had the unenviable task of facing the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies, much like the Hawks were able to keep OKC on the brink of desperation much of the series. When Memphis took Game 5 from the Thunder and were one win away from advancing with Game 6 in Memphis, many wrote off the Thunder. The newspaper article above titles "Mr-Unreliable" was a direct shot at league MVP Kevin Durant.
When faced with potential elimination, Durant rose to the challenge scoring 36 and 33 points in the two games that probably would have defined his career up to this point had he lost. Russell Westbrook continued to flirt with disaster by jumping from the All Star playmaker no one in the NBA can duplicate to the stereotypical "I got this" mode that often drives critics arguments against him. A triple-double in Game 7 silenced Westbrook haters for the time being but against Chris Paul and the Clippers it will be harder to get away with shenanigans.
The Thunder are such an interesting team because they seem to be held together by a lose foundation. They rely on their two stars to do almost all of the scoring, rebounding, and playmaking. Caron Butler, Derek Fisher, and Kendrick Perkins are due to turn to dust any day now and Serge Ibake, while a valuable contributor, will have his hands full all series with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin. Reggie Jackson sometimes pulls threes that make even the humble kind-hearted Durant role his eyes. People are growing more and more concerned with Scott Brooks' coaching each and every game. But despite all of these concerns, the Thunder are the most dangerous team in the NBA. They're the only team that has a true "playoff gear" that can match the Heat. When OKC gets in to that third gear where they're blocking shots out of the gym and raining threes they're virtually unbeatable.
When faced with potential elimination, Durant rose to the challenge scoring 36 and 33 points in the two games that probably would have defined his career up to this point had he lost. Russell Westbrook continued to flirt with disaster by jumping from the All Star playmaker no one in the NBA can duplicate to the stereotypical "I got this" mode that often drives critics arguments against him. A triple-double in Game 7 silenced Westbrook haters for the time being but against Chris Paul and the Clippers it will be harder to get away with shenanigans.
The Thunder are such an interesting team because they seem to be held together by a lose foundation. They rely on their two stars to do almost all of the scoring, rebounding, and playmaking. Caron Butler, Derek Fisher, and Kendrick Perkins are due to turn to dust any day now and Serge Ibake, while a valuable contributor, will have his hands full all series with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin. Reggie Jackson sometimes pulls threes that make even the humble kind-hearted Durant role his eyes. People are growing more and more concerned with Scott Brooks' coaching each and every game. But despite all of these concerns, the Thunder are the most dangerous team in the NBA. They're the only team that has a true "playoff gear" that can match the Heat. When OKC gets in to that third gear where they're blocking shots out of the gym and raining threes they're virtually unbeatable.
#5 San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs got the wake up call they needed when they were taken to seven games by the Dallas Mavericks. Down 2-1 early in the series thanks to a Vince Carter buzzer beating three, the Spurs had to rally behind their leadership and the fundamental ball movement that led them, yet again, to the best record in the NBA.
The hope for Spurs fans is that the Game 7 victory against Dallas finally got them over the hump and back on track to ring number 5 for Duncan and Popovich. The Spurs obliterated Dallas and finally looked like the championship contender most had pegged them for months. The keys to the Spurs success against Portland will be the following:
- Contain Damian Lillard
The good news for Spurs fans is that Lillard won't be able to guard Tony Parker. The bad news for Spurs fans is that Lillard is as hot as any player in the league right now he has the ability to rain threes at rates that make defenses tremble. The Blazers are no joke, and containing Lillard to under 25 points is priority number one for the San Antonio defense.
- Tim Duncan vs. LaMarcus Aldridge
At this stage in their careers it is evident that LaMarcus Aldridge is a better player then Tim Duncan. Duncan's accolades speak for themselves but so does age. Duncan is 38 years old, and Aldridge is 28 years old. They have both mastered the mid-range game. It will be important for the Spurs for Duncan to flex his defensive superiority against LA because if Aldridge has games of 40 points like he did against Houston, the Spurs can't win. It is possible that Tiago Splitter will guard Aldridge and Duncan will guard Robin Lopez, but either way limiting LA has to be a key to the Spurs game plan.
- 3-point shooting
Both teams shoot the ball incredibly well and have various guys that can make threes. Whichever team can shoot the three better on the road will be the team that will have the advantage in the series. With the bright lights and the NBA stars at their finest, this series will likely come down to the three point shooting of Wes Matthews, Mo Williams, Dorell Wright, Danny Green, Patty Mills, and Boris Diaw.
#4 Los Angeles Clippers
I won't spend too much time touching on the off court issues the Clippers have faced, but before I break down their second round matchup with the Thunder, I do want to say that it was awesome seeing Doc Rivers and the Clippers fans at the end of Game 7. The Clippers have the sort of momentum that championship teams always seem to find in the playoffs, and even though it was sparked by a disgusting controversy, it could pay off in a bond between coaches and players that could lead to a championship.
Chris Paul will have to be Chris Paul in this series. I know that sounds obvious but it has never been more important than it is right now. This is the Clippers best shot to win the title in their team's history, and a matchup with Russell Westbrook is something Paul knows all about. The two often play well against each other bringing out the best in their opponents, but for this series Paul is going to have to outwork Westbrook. That doesn't necessarily mean he has to score as much, but it means he has to create as many points. The three point shooting for LA will be important in this series as well.
In addition to Chris Paul playing well (and staying healthy!) the Clippers need Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan to dominate the post. LA is the only team in the league that has two post players with this much on their backs. The Thunder have absolutely no answer for DeAndre Jordan if he decides to play the way he did against the Warriors. The rim runs from basket to basket will be key for LA. Usually you don't want to speed up the Thunder because they can run as well as anyone, but in this case, the guards and forwards will want to slow down the Thunder stars but when the time is right Paul and co. will want to have their posts outrun the Thunder bigs.
#3 Washington Wizards
If the Pacers had trouble with Jeff Teague, they're certainly going to have trouble with John Wall. Wall didn't shoot well in his first NBA playoff series but he was fearless, and that's what the Wizards will desperately need to beat the Pacers. They must adopt a "why not us" mentality. Trevor Ariza needs to continue to be the lock-down three point machine that he's been for the past two months and Nene and Gortat need to keep bringing their best, especially against the size of Indiana.
The Pacers were exposed by the Hawks with their limited ability to defend the three when teams play small ball, unfortunately the Wizards employ two back to the basket big men. I think an interesting decision for Randy Whitman will be what he will do with Al Harrington. The big man has the ability to stretch the floor but hasn't seen a lot of court time for Washington this season. If the Wizards have the gaul to role the dice and take a chance on Harrington, I think that it could pay off big because it will force David West away from the basket allowing more lanes for Wall, Beal, Ariza, etc.
The worst nightmare for the Wizards is if Roy Hibbert returns to All Star form. Much has been documented about the collapse of Hibbert in the playoffs so far, but he looked solid in Game 7 and appears to be getting his mojo back. As I mentioned he won't have to deal with the spacing issues he did against the Hawks because Gortat isn't a three point threat. If he can patrol the paint, more specifically, keep John Wall out of it, the Wizards are in trouble. A lot of analysts are picking Washington to beat the Pacers, and with their first playoff series win in recent memory. Beating Chicago, especially in 5 games, was a huge step for a team that hadn't been to the postseason since 2008. It doesn't need to end here Wizards fans, make no mistake, Indiana is far from the one seed that they earned in the regular season. The Wizards truly can beat the Pacers, they just have to take the right steps.
#2 Portland Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard is kind of the king of the world right now. That's why I have them ranked second, because there's no player who is as hot as Lillard is after his buzzer-beating three to advance past Houston in the first round.
It will be very interesting to see how the Portland Trail Blazers come in to their series with the Spurs. If they come in like they just won their playoffs the Spurs could cruise, if they come in with the belief that they can win (which they really can) then it could be an all-time series. Wes Matthews and Nicolas Batum will have to have good games because the Spurs are masters of taking away teams' star players and making the "others" beat them.
Another major key for Portland will be to avoid going down 0-2 in San Antonio. The Spurs are the best road team in the NBA and even though they struggle in Portland and the Trail Blazers have one of the best fan bases in the entire league winning games 3 and 4 back to back will be tough. The best case scenario for Portland is to be up 3-1 after four just as they were against Houston and try to close it out at home for Game 6. The Spurs will not go lightly, they never do. You can't beat them with huge punches, it has to be small body shots over time, wearing them down and then some things have to just fall your way. My major concern for Portland would be gassing themselves out by the middle of this series because they want to win so badly that they keep throwing haymakers early, and all of a sudden the Spurs steal Game 4 and go up 3-1 with two of the next three at home. That would be the nightmare for the Trail Blazers.
* This is the series I'm most excited to watch, just for the record.
Another major key for Portland will be to avoid going down 0-2 in San Antonio. The Spurs are the best road team in the NBA and even though they struggle in Portland and the Trail Blazers have one of the best fan bases in the entire league winning games 3 and 4 back to back will be tough. The best case scenario for Portland is to be up 3-1 after four just as they were against Houston and try to close it out at home for Game 6. The Spurs will not go lightly, they never do. You can't beat them with huge punches, it has to be small body shots over time, wearing them down and then some things have to just fall your way. My major concern for Portland would be gassing themselves out by the middle of this series because they want to win so badly that they keep throwing haymakers early, and all of a sudden the Spurs steal Game 4 and go up 3-1 with two of the next three at home. That would be the nightmare for the Trail Blazers.
* This is the series I'm most excited to watch, just for the record.
#1 Miami Heat
They only key for Miami is to stay the course. They're the best team in the NBA, they have the best player in the NBA, they're the two-time defending NBA champion, they've won the Eastern Conference three straight years, no one is touching them unless they allow it to happen. We all know LeBron, Wade and Bosh are going to show up, but as with the Heat in years past, the only question is who will help them? Usual candidate Shane Battier has disappeared from the rotation, Ray Allen hasn't been able to find his jump shot consistently all season, and Udonis Haslem, Chris Anderson, Michael Beasley, and Greg Oden offer fairly little down low. The hope for Miami is that Chalmers and Cole can make their threes and put that extra pressure on Brooklyn to play small like Miami. The Heat will look to run up and down on the older Brooklyn Nets. Again, the Heat have nothing to worry about so long as they don't shoot themselves in the foots. I predict a quick series for Miami, maybe a sweep if it all comes together.
Just for fun - Here's who will win
Pacers over Wizards in 7
Heat over Nets in 5
Spurs over Blazers in 6
Thunder over Clippers in 7
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